This study examines the determinants of current account, export market share and exchange rates using Bayesian Model Averaging. Main policy implication of the study is that increasing international competitiveness is a gradual process that requires institutional and technological changes rather than a short-term adjustments in relative prices.
This study examines the determinants of current account, export market share and exchange rates. The author identifies key determinants using Bayesian Model Averaging, which allows evaluation of probability that each variable is in fact a determinant of the analysed competitiveness measure. The main implication of the results presented in the study is that increasing international competitiveness is a gradual process that requires institutional and technological changes rather than short-term adjustments in relative prices.
International competitiveness determinants - Bayesian Model Averaging - Current Account - Exchange rates forecasting - trade performance - export market share - institutional environment - technological competitiveness
Piotr Dybka is an Assistant Professor at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics. His research interests are international economics, with a particular focus on sources of international competitiveness, and public economics, especially in the context of shadow economy estimation.
