Econometric Modelling : Techniques and Applications (National Institute of Economic and Social Research Economic and Social Studies)

Macroeconomic modelling has been one of the most important and influential areas of economic research. This book presents contributions from the leading researchers working in this area as part of the ongoing research project sponsored by the Economic and Social Research Council, Bank of England and UK Treasury. The papers combine a description of the latest techniques used in modelling the economy with an account of the way that models can be used for purposes of policy analysis. Designed for use by advanced students and professional economists, the book considers issues including: why 'bad' forecasters, i.e. those with no coherent and properly articulated view of the functioning of the macroeconomy, do so well; reconciling short term dynamics with economic theory; modelling tax policy; and the stabilisation costs of European Monetary Union.